By interlink | 07/09/2026

218,000 BARRELS/DAY AT RISK OF SHORTAGE: MARINE FUEL SUPPLIES COME UNDER PRESSURE

The global marine fuel market is facing a potential supply shortage in Q3 2026 as refineries come under pressure from prolonged geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions.

According to Reuters, the shortfall in fuel oil used by ships and power plants could reach 218,000 barrels per day, a sharp increase from just around 6,000 barrels per day during the same period last year.

Why is marine fuel supply tightening?

  • Refineries are prioritizing higher-margin products such as diesel and gasoline, reducing the amount of fuel oil available for the shipping industry.
  • Meanwhile, conflicts in the Middle East and attacks on Russian refining facilities continue to disrupt refining operations and crude oil transportation.
  • Notably, Asia is expected to be among the hardest-hit regions, given its heavy reliance on oil flows from the Gulf region. Singapore, one of the world’s major bunkering hubs, is particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions.

Source: Reuters

Fuel inventories at major hubs including Singapore, Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp and Fujairah are currently around 30% below seasonal averages.

Meanwhile, Singapore VLSFO prices have risen by approximately 76% since the Iran conflict began, significantly outpacing the roughly 40% increase in Brent crude prices.

What does this mean for the logistics industry?

Fuel is one of the key components of maritime transportation costs. As bunker prices rise, vessel operating costs and freight rates are likely to come under increasing pressure.

If the shortage persists, importers and exporters may face:

• Higher ocean freight costs
• Potential adjustments to fuel surcharges
• Rising logistics and overall supply chain costs
• Greater pressure on shipping plans and transportation budgets

With shipping routes through the Middle East still facing ongoing risks, marine fuel is becoming a key factor for import-export businesses to monitor in the final months of 2026.

Businesses should proactively monitor fuel price movements, vessel schedules and shipping surcharges to optimize logistics planning and better control transportation costs.

NEWS & BLOG

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