Bởi interlink | 27/03/2025
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US Tightens Tariffs: Directly Affects Only 1.5% of Global Shipping, But Risks Remain.
According to Clarksons Research, although US tariffs are attracting significant attention, they currently only directly impact 1.5% of global shipping traffic. While this figure may seem modest, the risk of escalation remains, potentially altering trade policy and reshaping the international shipping network in the future.
The Actual Impact of US Tariffs on Shipping
Data from Clarksons Research shows that during the 2018-2019 trade war, the volume of goods transported (in ton-miles) decreased by only 0.5%. This reflects that, although US tariff policies have had some impact, they are not large enough to comprehensively disrupt global supply chains.
However, experts warn that US trade policy remains highly volatile. If tensions escalate, the indirect impact could increase, putting pressure on global supply chains and driving up shipping costs.
US Investigates China’s Dominance in the Maritime Industry
This week, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) will hold public hearings on March 24 and 26, 2025, to review its Section 301 investigation into China’s dominance in the maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors. If the investigation concludes that China is engaging in unfair competition, the U.S. could impose new sanctions, including:
- Imposing port duties on ships built in China when they dock at U.S. ports.
- Requiring U.S. exporters to ship a certain percentage of their goods on ships owned and operated by the U.S.
These measures could significantly alter the flow of maritime transport between the US and China, impacting the costs and logistics strategies of many international businesses.
The Uncertain Future of US Tariff Policy
According to Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, the outlook for US tariff policy remains highly uncertain. He predicts that the US could:
- Significantly increase tariffs on Chinese goods.
- Face retaliatory measures from other countries.
- Propose new port fees targeting Chinese ships and carriers.
- Restore the 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico, expected to be announced in early April.
Peter Sand, an analyst from Xeneta, believes that these uncertainties will force businesses to recalculate their import strategies. They will seek ways to optimize transportation costs through freight negotiations or supply chain adjustments to avoid increased tariffs and fees.
In summary
Although US tariffs currently only impact a small fraction of global shipping, changes in trade policy could create a domino effect, affecting entire international supply chains. In this context, businesses need to closely monitor policy developments and have flexible strategies to mitigate risks.
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